Washington: As Washington weighs military pressure against diplomacy, President Donald Trump has paused plans for a major strike on Iran while negotiations continue over the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran's nuclear program. Both Tehran and Washington say talks are progressing, but no agreement has yet been reached.
According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, retired Vice Admiral Robert Harward, a former Navy SEAL who served as deputy commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), provided insights into Iran's strategic mindset. Harward described Iran as inherently strategic, likening their approach to chess players who think long-term. Based on his experiences living in Iran and his professional dealings, Harward believes that Iran perceives the prolongation of negotiations as advantageous, understanding the dynamics of the US political system and betting on outlasting President Trump's term.
Harward further explained that the current US administration initially underestimated the need to integrate all national power elements. However, they are now emphasizing political leverage alongside military power, engaging with international partners to exert more comprehensive pressure on Iran. This includes diplomatic efforts with Arab countries and strategic partnerships to secure vital regions like the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite Iran's demonstrated ability to disrupt regional stability, Tehran appears reluctant to swiftly move toward a deal. Harward attributes this to the power dynamics within Iran, particularly the influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which he sees as the core decision-making body. Relinquishing any power would pose existential threats to the IRGC and its political allies, who fear internal accountability for their actions.
Harward also highlighted a common miscalculation by outside observers regarding Iran's leadership. Many underestimate the potential for change within Iran, as a significant portion of the population desires government reform. Although President Trump has mentioned this opportunity, Harward argues that sufficient policies or programs have not capitalized on it.
Reflecting on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Harward noted that while Iran complied with the agreement, it continued to develop capabilities outside the guidelines, posing a long-term threat. This underscores the complexity of negotiating with Iran and the need for vigilance beyond any formal agreements.
Drawing from personal connections, Harward shared that ordinary Iranians remain hopeful for government change, yearning for freedoms and prosperity seen in neighboring countries. They urge the US to persist in its efforts toward a government more focused on Iran's development and the well-being of its people, rather than exporting the Islamic Revolution.