With the conclusion of the legislative elections in France, the French Parliament braces for a new challenge with the absence of a unified front with an absolute majority that helps select a new president of the government, amid the presence of three different blocs.
The leftist alliance, the New Popular Front topped the results by obtaining 187 seats, while President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp ranked second with 168 seats. Meanwhile, the far-right alliance came in third with 143 seats.
Accordingly, French analysts and experts told Qatar News Agency that these results were indecisive and face the challenges of creating a unified front with an absolute majority in the Parliament, given the absence of consensus. The Parliament comprises 577 seats and winning the majority is contingent upon receiving at least 289 seats by the ruling bloc.
Speaking to QNA, Director of the IVERIS institute of international and strategic relations in Paris Leslie Varenne said the big challenges facing the creation of the ne
w French Parliament and electing the new President lies in forging co-existence and a unified front for an absolute majority, something she affirmed, is challenging on the political ground due to the existence of political factions that have conflicting viewpoints and programmes.
The new popular front that represents the leftist, if not dissolved at this time, will be the most consequential political fronts with an instrumental role in the upcoming Parliament, albeit it does not have an absolute majority. Thus, this relative majority poses a core challenge for it and the remaining political fronts, Varenne highlighted.
She affirmed that the new front will be capable of ruling the country away from all fears and accusations directed toward it from the rest of the political opponents, because the front has entered the second round of the legislative elections with a tight-knit and unified programme and would be capable of conducting this programme if it was given the chance to rule the country.
Varenne point
ed out that the key problem facing the new front is the fact that it does not have the absolute majority but can rule the country in the coming period only through the relative majority it has gained like the President Emmanuel Macron’s alliance which governed for two years.
Upon concluding her remarks, Varenne clarified that the major challenge facing the New Popular Front’ lies in attempts by some small parties affiliated with it to join the presidential alliance.
The writer and political analyst specializing in European and international relations Mounsef Al Salimi, said he thinks that the President Emmanuel Macron’s decision not to accept Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s resignation is a pragmatic and realistic decision based on several considerations, foremost among them are the numerous significant events awaiting France in the near future, notably the Olympic Games, which are not just a massive sporting event but also a complex security challenge.
Al Salimi added that there are also financial consider
ations and challenges for France, both at the European and domestic levels, which require a continuity in state governance. Additionally, with no absolute majority in Parliament for any specific bloc, achieving such a majority will necessitate weeks of negotiations, discussions, and political maneuvering.
He pointed out that all these challenges limit the options available to President Emmanuel Macron and compel him to make the decision not to accept the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, stressing that it would be a mistake for the President to accept this resignation and leave matters open-ended and uncertain.
Additionally, Al Salimi elucidated that the scenarios proposed for forming a majority coalition in the Parliament include the success of the left-wing alliance, by agreeing on a unified candidate for Prime Minister and gaining support from centrist and conservative parties simultaneously.
Another scenario, he said, involves the success of President Macron’s coalition in convincing some ce
ntrist or other traditional blocs like the Republicans to join, forming a robust nucleus for the next government, in addition to a possibility is for the French political class to break the deadlock of non-agreement culture and find common ground on a shared program between the two main blocs, the new popular front’ and alliance of centrist forces, with the aim of achieving an absolute majority in Parliament.
He added that the fourth scenario would be the failure of all coalition efforts among political forces. In such a case, President Macron would be compelled to appoint a technocratic figure to manage the government until the next presidential or legislative elections.
In concluding his remarks, Al Salimi highlighted that one of the major challenges facing the French decision-makers soon is the lack of consensus within the Parliament, which could potentially push France back to the ballot boxes.
For his part, President of the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) and an analyst specializ
ing in international relations, Emmanuel Dubois, told QNA that the first challenge facing the French Parliament after its first session scheduled for Jul. 18 is the election of its president, followed by the election of bloc leaders and committee heads such as the Finance Committee, Foreign Affairs Committee, Defense Committee, et al. And all these procedural steps, he said, will involve intense debates due to the lack of an absolute majority in this Parliament.
Dubois added that the second challenge is to form an absolute majority in Parliament through upcoming alliances, which appears to be exceedingly difficult but necessary for the functioning of Parliament. This majority is crucial to serve as a safeguard for the next government, whether its Prime Minister comes from within Parliament or is an independent figure from outside, as both scenarios would require a confidence vote from this Parliament Upon concluding his remarks, Dubois stressed the imperative of revising and possibly completely overhauling t
he French constitution to enter a Sixth Republic. And according to him, the current constitution’s proposals and their pilot implementation leave matters unresolved and prone to political deadlock. This was demonstrated by the dissolution of Parliament, which deepened the current constitutional impasse rather than resolving it.
Source: Qatar News Agency
